Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#30: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 30

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 138th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Conor Geekie (21st)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Roman Schmidt (118th)

System Score: 1

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the most consistently powerful hockey clubs of the last decade, and they have shed multiple draft picks and prospects to maintain that level of excellence. In fact, had they not traded one of their top defenders for a package of picks, a young NHL defender and a top 25 forward prospect in Conor Geekie, the Lightning system would rank even lower than 30th overall. 

The Bolts have had two first-round picks in the last seven years. They selected Nolan Foote 27th overall in 2019, and Isaac Howard 31st overall in 2022. Foote was traded to the New Jersey Devils and has struggled to stick in the NHL, while Howard is coming off a great year with the Michigan State University and will play at least one more year in the NCAA. Not only have they had only a couple of first round picks, they have been equally spare on second and third-round picks, too. In the last four NHL drafts, Tampa has had only four total picks in the first three rounds, one of whom was the aforementioned Howard. 

The Top of The Pool:

The top of the Tampa Bay prospect system is heavily on forwards. In fact, the top-ranked defenseman Roman Schmidt shows up all the way down at 9th on a combined system ranking. 

Conor Geekie is head and shoulders above the rest of the players in Tampa Bay's system. Not only is one of their biggest prospects at 6'4 and nearly 200 pounds, but he is also the kind of all-around, high-work-rate Center that teams want to build around. The Hockey Prophets have been watching Geekie for a long time, and many of the critiques noted back in 2021 have been corrected (skating is improved, slap shot is smoother, etc.) and his 99 points in 54 WHL games split between Swift Current and Wenatchee shows that his offensive contribution has been ramping up as hoped. He may play some in the AHL this year, but there is a better than even-money chance that he will become a full-time NHLer this season.

A sizeable gap exists in the rankings between Geekie at the top, and the second-ranked prospect Ethan Gauthier (100th-ranked forward), the 19-year-old right winger playing QMJHL hockey for Drummondville. Gauthier does not have the same offensive abilities as Geekie (Gauthier posted just 71 points in 64 games last season), and he does not have excellent skating, but he plays a hard game in the dirty areas of the offensive zone, banging around at the front of the net, and earning every point he gets. His road to the NHL may be a bit longer and he will have to prove that he can be effective with his style of play against the bigger, strong professionals, but he has a chance to be a serviceable middle-six winger.

Right behind Gauthier is Isaac Howard (ranked 115th). Howard's best quality by far is his skating. He is a true burner with amazing speed and maneuverability, and he uses his skating as a weapon on offense. The biggest complaint with Howard's play is a tendency to float a bit more away from the puck, but he has been improving his intensity at both ends of the ice. Should he continue to improve his overall work rate and become a more honest player at both ends, he could work his way into a contributing, aggressive attack second-line winger. 

Jack Finley is another huge centerman at 6'6, 223 pounds. Finley's potential role in the NHL will not be as a point-generator, but as a shutdown Center who can take on a defensive role and chip in some offense from time to time. He skates well enough to be a quality penalty killer, too.

Return to the Team System Rankings

Below is the full list of Tampa Bay's ranked prospects.

Top Forwards 

Top Defensemen