The Upside of Trading Down at the NHL Draft
February 22, 2023 by Roderick Ioerger
Trading down at the draft is a well-worn attempt to take advantage of another team’s desperation and add assets while trying not to lose player value with the later picks received in return. It takes a leap of faith in an organization’s scouting staff and pick valuation to believe in the decision to move down.
[Author’s Note: When evaluating trades for this article, only the first round of the draft was considered, and trades were limited to those in which only draft picks moved between teams.]
For most teams, that leap often ends in tears and dashed hopes. In fact, between 1990 and 2015 there appears to have been only six meaningful wins for teams who added picks by trading back in the draft, despite the 65 attempts reviewed. Trading down in the NHL draft appears to be a losing move roughly 90 percent of the time.
However, when trading works, it can have remarkable results. The trade wins featured here have led to All-Star caliber players going to the team trading down and significantly less in NHL level talent going back to the team trading up. [Note that the trades below are discussed in chronological order.]
Martin Brodeur
This first example supports just how much scouting matters. In 1990 the New Jersey Devils received the 20th, 24th and 29th overall picks in a trade with Calgary for the 11th and 32nd-overall picks. At 11, Calgary drafted Trevor Kidd, the first goalie drafted in 1990 ended up being a respectable if unspectacular NHL goaltender. He produced 140 wins, 162 losses and 52 ties in 387 regular season games played.
Calgary later used the 32nd pick to select Vesa Viitakoski. Viitakoski managed to play 23 NHL games over three seasons, scoring just two goals with four assists. Viitakoski then returned to Europe where he had a successful 17-year career in the SM-Liiga with the majority of his games played for Ilves Tampere. In the 2001 season he managed 60 points with 34 goals and finished the season second in scoring, just one point behind the leader.
On the other side of the deal, after trading down from 11 to 20th overall, the Devils drafted Martin Brodeur, who ended up becoming the winningest goaltender in NHL history with 691 regular season wins, 125 shutouts, four Vezina Trophies, five Jennings Trophies, one Calder Trophy and three Stanley Cup Championships. In 2018 Martin Brodeur was elected to the Hockey Hall of Fame.
New Jersey used pick number 24 to select defenseman David Harlock, who would play eight years and 212 games in the NHL, the majority of those after being selected by the Atlanta Thrashers from the New York Islanders in the 1999 expansion draft. With the 29th overall pick, the Devils drafted right winger Chris Gotziaman. Gotziaman played four seasons at the University of North Dakota, but failed to crack the NHL during his career. He retired after the 1997 ECHL season.
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