Jordan Dumais Might Be The Most Underappreciated Player In This Year’s Draft Class

At 109 points in 68 games, Jordan Dumais has joined the highly exclusive club of 100-point Quebec Major Junior Hockey League draft-year scorers. Dumais ended his pivotal season with 39 goals and 70 assists, good enough for sixth all-time in draft-year scoring among the nearly 1,500 eligible players since the 2000-2001 season. The five players above him on the list (Sidney Crosby, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Derick Brassard, Jason Pominville and Alex Lafreniere) have a combined 3,847 NHL games played with 3,066 total NHL points scored, and of them, only Pominville (55^th!) was selected outside of the top ten. Dumais has scored more points in his draft year than previous NHL stars and first-round picks like Jonathan Huberdeau (3^rd overall), Nikolai Ehlers (9^th), Claude Giroux (22^nd) and Pierre-Luc Dubois (3^rd).

Despite the elite level of scoring and play that Dumais has shown this season, he still appears to be wildly underappreciated by the draft-watching community.

Dumais, the player who easily led all QMJHL draft-eligible prospects in goals, assists, points and points per game, the player who finished third overall in total QMJHL scoring (tied for the league lead in assists) and who cracked an elite list of draft-eligible scorers in the history of the QMJHL, somehow finds himself entirely absent or far down on almost all published draft rankings. The initial Hockey Prophets draft ranking has Dumais at 18^th overall, but no other major publication’s ranking lists Dumais in their top 32.

Dumais was selected 18^th overall in the 2020 QMJHL Entry Draft after posting 2.40 points per game for the Selects Academy U15 AAA squad, placing him in the top three in that league behind only Cole Spicer and Rutger McGroarty (both playing for the USNTDP). Since joining the Mooseheads, Dumais has scored 49 goals and 89 assists in 108 QJMHL games. This season, having earned a role on the team’s top line, his offensive production was consistent and plentiful. Dumais led the Halifax Mooseheads in scoring by more than twenty points and his 1.60 points-per-game is well above last year’s twenty-seventh-overall NHL draft pick Zachary L’Heureux. He had 31 multipoint games this season, and eight times has tallied at least four points in a game, including a six-assist game on April 19th.  Over the last month of the season, Dumais scored 15 goals and added 22 assists in his 13 games. He ended the season with a 14-game point streak, during which he had multipoint games in all but one competition.

While he was a dominant player in the QMJHL this season, and lines up against the best that the league has to offer, he was not invited to the CHL Top Prospects game, so unfortunately that opportunity to play against the best of this year’s draft eligible players evaporated. Having a chance to see him test his skills alongside players like top-ranked Shane Wright, Matthew Savoie, Pavel Mintyukov and Denton Mateychuk could have been incredibly instructive.

Looking at some key comparison tools, however, can help to fill that gap in on-ice observations. Dumais’ production this season has been good enough, when combined with his youth (he is an April 2004 birthdate), for a -2.61 Age/Production Score. A recent study of draft-year results shows that forwards from draft years 2005 through 2012 (meaning there has been at least ten years of post-draft experience to look at) indicates that players with similar scores have close to a 95-percent probability of becoming full-time NHL players scoring at roughly a 0.65 points-per-game pace during their NHL careers.

Players that most closely compare to Dumais in the Hockey Prophets Draft Year Database (score, goal ratio, size, age, etc.):

There are other players with similar A/P Scores (Nikolai Ehlers, Bryan Little, Alex DeBrincat, Andrei Svechnikov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, for example), but when combining major attributes, Jarvis and Keller share the most similarities with Dumais.

The Hockey Prophets, in trying to understand why Dumais has been overlooked or disregarded by draft watchers so far, took a much closer look at some of Dumais’ key on-ice abilities: skating, awareness, intelligence, competitiveness and physical play.

Skating: Dumais is a deceptive skater who uses his brain more than his feet to get to the right spot on the ice. While Dumais lacks a strong first step, after the initial push he shows the agility and edgework that gets him into small spaces without heavy contact. His ability to find empty spaces on the ice and take advantage of them makes almost irrelevant whatever he lacks in acceleration. His top speed is above average and will improve as he gains leg strength and continues to work on power skating techniques. He is composed and balanced on his skates and able to take contact without falling or having his intent obtruded. At this point, he appears to be good enough on his feet for the NHL, and he will improve over time.

Awareness: Dumais consistently shows excellent game awareness and vision. Whether finding players through traffic, lifting passes over sticks or using a defender’s positioning to make a pass through the triangle, Dumais often is able to see the best play on the ice, whether on or off the puck. Watching him on the ice, he constantly scans the play and gets into the position that will best advance the play. Rarely will one see Dumais out of position, at either end of the ice. Which is why he can often be found starting key shifts in the defensive zone in late game situations protecting tight leads, or on the penalty kill.

Intelligence: Dumais’ hockey intelligence shines throughout his play, and truly is the keystone of his game. Beyond simply showing the awareness to see the ice and understand how the moment is unfolding, his ability to see the game in multiple dimensions and probable outcomes is outstanding. In his own zone, Dumais takes sharp angles to the puck carrier, cutting off lanes of attack instead of chasing the puck. One perfect example of his hockey iq came in a late-season game against Cape Breton, when Dumais had the puck near the right circle of the offensive zone. Seeing the rest of his line in a change, Dumais had two clear choices: dump the puck and change or put the puck on net. Both choices had obvious downsides, particularly because he was in so deep. If the scoring attempt failed, or if he dumped the puck behind the net, his opponents—closer to the puck—would have an opportunity for counterattack. Instead of these two poor options, Dumais turned the puck towards the corner, went to boards, and drew the defender to him, allowing himself to be pinned and hold the puck until the change was completed. Then he moved the puck to his teammate and went for a change. 

Competitiveness: Dumais rarely takes a shift off, and his desire to push play up ice shows constantly. Off the puck, he goes to the net and sets up at the side of the crease, ready to drop below the net or step out into the slot. His hands and stick are always ready, and if the play requires inside or outside effort, he is there, ready to make that play. He looks like a player who is willing to do whatever the coach asks of him to help the team.

Physical play: Probably the area of the game that is most lacking, but as a smaller player, hard-nosed physical play does not suit him anyway. Dumais is not a player who is going to disrupt attacks with big hits into the boards or hard-driving forecheck pins. However, physical play for a player like Dumais should be consider less as dishing out punishment but a willingness to absorb physical pressure to open other areas of ice, or by getting into the tougher areas of the ice to make plays. Although he generally puts himself into positions that avoid hits in the first place, Dumais will allow defenders a line of aggressive attack when it creates the opportunity for a better option to a teammate. Holding the puck that extra second to bring the defender to him and make the patient pass is Dumais’ best type of physicality.

After considering the key attributes of Dumais’ overall game and recognizing that for a draft-year player about to crack 100 points in the QMJHL, his omission from the top ranks of scouts’ draft lists comes down to lack of size and acceleration. The acceleration can—and will—be improved. So size appears to be the main contributing factor. Twenty years ago, a 5’9 player would have had a much more difficult time breaking into the NHL, but those concerns should be alleviated somewhat by the huge impact smaller players have made in recent years. Dumais, with his combination of skills, intelligence and high-end scoring drive as well as his dedication to improving his game, must be considered worthy of a first-round pick in the NHL draft. If not, years from now when hockey fans and pundits are looking back at the 2022 NHL draft, they will be wondering why Dumais went so low, and marveling at the wisdom of the team that selected him.