Hockey Prophets

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Random Quote From The Archive

Will CuylleCHL Top Prospects Game (CHL)1/16/2020Tries a hard turn, loses his balance a little, then his acceleration looks a bit clumsy. Wasn't digging his blades into the ice.

 

Number of Players

Number of Notes

Number of Games Noted
1,460 9,458 325
Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#27: Vegas Golden Knights

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 22

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 136th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Trevor Connelly (19th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Arttu Karki (67th)

System Score: 2

 

The first NHL for the Vegas franchise was in 2017, in which the Golden Knights held three first-round picks and two seconds. The team hit on four of the five picks, who have combined for a total of over 1,100 NHL games so far. Unfortunately, only Nic Hague (te 6'6 defenseman they selected 34th) plays for the Golden Knights. Instead, the Vegas front office used the blue chip prospects to trade players the team thought could help generate immediate success. Out were Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Eric Brannstrom. In came Patrick Nolan, Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone.

Since that initial draft success, Vegas has been able to pick in the first round of five of the subsequent seven drafts. Only one of those picks--Peyton Krebs, 17th overall in 2019--has become an NHL player, but like the top picks in 2017, Vegas used Krebs as a part of a deal to bring in experienced help. In this case, Krebs was moved to Buffalo in part of a deal that brought back Jack Eichel. 

However, despite having moved multiple mid-round picks in recent years which has left the prospect pool rather shallow (only 22 currently-ranked prospects is fewer than all but one other team), but maintaining top-end picks has allowed the system to have some true quality players at the top of the system.

Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#28: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 32

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 155th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Minten Fraser (75th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Ben Danford (32nd)

System Score: 1.5

 

The recent success of the Toronto Maple Leafs and their playoff runs have been chronicled in depth, but what has been most interesting from a prospect perspective has been their ability to retain top-round draft picks. Since 2018 the Leafs have used ten top-65 draft picks, including four first-round picks. Tragically, one of those picks, Russian prospect Rodion Amirov, died in August 2023 after a battle with brain cancer. The top two Toronto drafts picks from the 2018 draft are also no longer in the Toronto system. Rasmus Sandin (29th overall) was traded to Washington and Sean Durzi (52nd overall) was traded to Los Angeles, both for more experienced help on the troubled Maple Leafs blue line. Two other top picks from recent years have graduated as full- or near full-time NHL players in the Toronto lineup. Nic Robertson has played 87 NHL games, most of them last season. After struggling to earn playing time amongst the well-stocked top lines in Toronto and fighting some injury issues, Robertson looks to have finally gotten a permanent role. Matthew Knies has had better early success after two NCAA seasons. He played 80 games for the Leafs last year, with 15 goals and 20 assists and a solid physical game.

Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#29: Vancouver Canucks

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 28

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 145th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Anthony Romani (56th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Tom Willander (6th)

System Score: 1.5

 

Vancouver's prospect system is caught in a vortex of a lack of top-end draft picks in recent years and the graduation of top prospects from earlier drafts like all-world defenseman Quinn Hughes and promising lightweight winger Nils Hoglander. The Canucks recently traded their 10th overall draft pick from the 2019 draft Vasili Podkolzin--who has scored just 35 points in 137 NHL games--for a fourth-round pick, but Vancouver's more recent first-round selections appear to be on the cusp of NHL play and should soon supplement the nascent Stanley Cup challenger.

In the 2024 draft, Vancouver did not make a selection until their 93rd-overall pick of forward Melvin Fernstrom, but they also managed to add overage forward Anthony Romani with a sixth-round pick who is coming off a huge, breakout year for North Bay in the OHL. 

Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#30: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 30

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 138th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Conor Geekie (21st)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Roman Schmidt (118th)

System Score: 1

 

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the most consistently powerful hockey clubs of the last decade, and they have shed multiple draft picks and prospects to maintain that level of excellence. In fact, had they not traded one of their top defenders for a package of picks, a young NHL defender and a top 25 forward prospect in Conor Geekie, the Lightning system would rank even lower than 30th overall. 

The Bolts have had two first-round picks in the last seven years. They selected Nolan Foote 27th overall in 2019, and Isaac Howard 31st overall in 2022. Foote was traded to the New Jersey Devils and has struggled to stick in the NHL, while Howard is coming off a great year with the Michigan State University and will play at least one more year in the NCAA. Not only have they had only a couple of first round picks, they have been equally spare on second and third-round picks, too. In the last four NHL drafts, Tampa has had only four total picks in the first three rounds, one of whom was the aforementioned Howard. 

Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#31: Florida Panthers 

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 27

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 154th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Simon Zether (104th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Matvei Shuravin (71st)

System Score: 1

 

Lifting the Stanley Cup is much easier when it is not full of prospects, and the Panthers skating around the rink a few months ago were well appreciative of the absence of several junior and college players clinging to the rim. Much like those in Boston, the cupboards in Sunshine, Florida are remarkably empty with only two prospects ranked within the top 100 on either the forwards or the defensemen lists. One key difference between the Bruins and the Panthers is named Anton Lundell, the Finnish center that Florida selected 12th overall in 2020 and has since became a mainstay in the starting lineup with 216 NHL games thus far (in which he has scored 112 points). Despite having four first-round picks since the 2018 draft, the Panthers have not had a first-rounder since they took Mackie Samoskevich in 2021. In fact, the highest pick they have used in the past three drafts 58th overall in 2024 which they used to select Linus Eriksson.

 

Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#32: Boston Bruins 

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 30

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 177th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Dean Letourneau (55th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Elliott Groenewold (150th)

System Score: 1

 

A running theme for the lowest-ranking systems will be the sacrifice of the prospect pool for Stanley Cup success. The Bruins prospect system can be held up as the defining example of the deprivations that prospect pools suffer through in order to keep the NHL team stocked with top-caliber players vying for championships. Since the 2018 draft (note: players taken before the 2018 draft are likely beyond the 24-year-old cutoff for Hockey Prophets prospect consideration), the Bruins have had just three first-round picks, and the highest of the three was 21st overall in 2021 (Fabian Lysell). The Bruins have seen a few of their recent picks finding their way to the NHL (John Beecher, 30th overall in 2019; Mason Lohrei, 58th overall in 2020; Matthew Poitras, 54th overall in 2022) but they have generally seen little help from their past several drafts.