Hockey Prophets

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Kyen SopaNorth Bay vs Niagara (OHL)3/29/2019Can really fly up ice.

 

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1,460 9,458 325
Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#21: Buffalo Sabres

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 36

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 108th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Konsta Helenius (9th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Adam Kleber (49th)

System Score: 3

 

The Buffalo Sabres' prospect system can be a complicated tangle to unwind. On one hand, the prospects in the group take a step up in the rankings in quality and quantity. On the other hand, the Sabres as an NHL team have leaned heavily on their recent draft picks and, as such, most of the true top talent has already graduated from the prospect ranks. Last year's first-round select, Zachary Benson, played nearly the entirety of the 2023-2024 season. Buffalo's first-overall selection in 2021--Owen Power--has played in 163 NHL games and is one of the best young defensemen in the game. The 2020 draft saw the Sabres bring in Jack Quinn at eighth overall (104 games, 24 goals, 34 assists) and JJ Peterka at 34th overall (161 games, 40 goals, 42 assists). Dylan Cousins (2019 draft pick, 280 games) and another first-overall pick Rasmus Dahlin (2018 draft, 436 games, 66 goals, 226 assists, NHL All-Rookie team and 3-time All Star) round out an admirable list of draft pick contributors over recent years. 

So the main question when looking at the Sabres' prospects becomes one of reviewing who is left in the pool. Despite the unqualified success of Buffalo's draft picks, the prospect pool still has some top-notch pieces that should be soon helping their draft mates on NHL ice.

 

Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#22: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 30

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 161st

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Rutger McGroarty (26th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Owen Pickering (23rd)

System Score: 2.5

 

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Penguins had a five-year run during which they held top-five draft picks, including two first-overall picks and two second-overall picks. Pittsburgh used the bounty of those draft picks to build a multiple-Stanley Cup championship team full of future Hall of Fame players (in order from 2002-2006: Ryan Whitney, Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and Jordan Staal). Since the 2018 draft, the Penguins have held a total of only three first-round draft picks, and until last year only three second-round picks, so their recent success in the draft is understandably limited.  Their 53rd-overall pick in 2018 was Calen Addison, a defenseman who has played 152 NHL games over four professional seasons, but none with the Penguins. Beyond Addison, no other player drafted by the Penguins in the last several years has seen any serious NHL ice time. 

However, over the past three drafts, Pittsburgh has been able to restock the system somewhat, and the quality of their top prospects has improved dramatically.

 

Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#23: Edmonton Oilers

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 25

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 197th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Matthew Savoie (33rd)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Beau Akey (31st)

System Score: 2.5

 

In the early 2010s, the Edmonton Oilers had such a remarkable run of first overall picks that the NHL actually changed their draft lottery rules. The team has not picked first overall since winning the Conor McDavid tank battle in 2015, but they have done a remarkable job of having first round picks in their pockets while building a Stanley Cup challenger. With their six first-round picks since 2018, the Oilers have brought in Evan Bouchard (265 NHL games, 171 points from the blue line), Philip Broberg (81 NHL games, lost to a St. Louis offer sheet) and Dylan Hollaway (also lost to a St. Louis offer sheet). Other first round picks Xavier Bourgault (22nd overall 2021) and Reid Schaefer (32nd overall 2022) were traded to Ottawa and Nashville, respectively.

The Oilers have not seen a lot of NHL success from their picks after the first round since the 2018 draft, and in fact only Ryan McLeod (taken 40th overall in 2018) has contributed to the NHL squad. The more recent first rounders from  2022-2024 have not yet made their way up to the NHL level, but the team has some talented prospects at the top end of the system developing and waiting for their chance.

 
Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#24: New York Rangers

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 27

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 160th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Gabe Perreault (7th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: EJ Emery (21st)

System Score: 2.5

 

The quality of prospect pools leaps up a full level from the island to the city, where the New York Rangers bring some true top-end talent to the system evaluations. In 2018, the Rangers sent out a well-publicized letter to the fans announcing a rebuild of the franchise, promising both pain and success in a journey to construct a league championship team. Since 2018, the Rangers have picked in the first round a total of nine times, pulling four full-time NHL starters for the team from the 2018-2020 drafts, including first-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, K'Andre Miller and Braden Schneider. More recent drafts have yet to yield NHL fruit, but the team has managed to stock the pipeline with some highly skilled, talented prospects on the cusp of playing for the big club.

 
Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#25: New York Islanders

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 23

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 130th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Cole Eiserman (27th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Jesse Pulkinnen (64th)

System Score: 2

 

New York Islanders General Manager Lou Lamoriello has been in charge since the summer of 2018, and in that time he has had four first round picks, three of which were in the 2018 (Oliver Wahlstrom 11th overall, Noah Dobson 12th overall) and 2019 (Simon Holmstrom 23rd overall) drafts. Those three players have played in 635 NHL games thus far, but the remaining 31 players selected by the Islanders from 2018-2023 have played only a total of 68 NHL game--51 of those games have been played by Sam Bolduc. Wahlstrom, Dobson and Holmstrom comprise 90% of NHL games-played success from all of those draft years.   

It was not until the recent 2024 draft that the Islanders would have another chance at a first-round pick, and in this case they selected arguably the best pure goal scorer of the draft class in Cole Eiserman. Despite having made a lot of mid- and later-round picks, the Islanders prospect system has seen relatively little success, and without the addition of Eiserman and Pulkinnen in the most recent draft, the system would be ranked even lower than 25th among NHL prospect pools.

 
Brian Fogarty Top Prospects By Team

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#26: Ottawa Senators

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 30

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 93rd

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Xavier Bourgault (73rd)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Carter Yakemchuk (12th)

System Score: 2

 

Ottawa has been a team searching for an identity for several seasons. They have been a team that is simultaneously trying to build through the draft while also attempting to be a relevant playoff challenger.  The Senators have had great success with their top-end draft picks over the past several years, drafting four-time (so far) All-Star Brady Tkachuk with the fourth overall pick in 2018 and Tim Stutzle (247 points in 285 NHL games) third overall, defenseman Jake Sanderson 5th overall (70 points in 156 NHL games) and center Ridley Greigh 28th overall in 2020. Ottawa has picked two other times in the first round since 2108, selecting defenseman Lassi Thomson 19th overall in 2019 and Tyler Boucher 10th overall in 2021. Niether of those two players have yet seen NHL success. Thomson saw a handful of NHL games in 2021-2022, but since then has played almost exclusively in the AHL. Boucher has bounced around quite a bit, from the US Team development program, to Boston University, to the OHL and last year played in the AHL. He has not found scoring success yet at any level, and he still has a long way to go before becoming a NHLer.