Top Prospects
The Hockey Prophets Top Prospects rankings are based on a combination of objective modelling and subjective qualitative scoring:
1) Watching Prospects Play
First and foremost is the eyes-on test. Numbers can tell a lot about a player, but they can also obscure a lot of player attributes, as well. The Hockey Prophets try to watch as many of the players as possible and will collect as many game notes as possible. Prospects can and will be moved up and down the rankings based on actual viewings.
2) Scoring Ability
The NHL-equivalent scoring history of every prospect is factored into the prospect score and represents about 40% of the total quantitative rank weighting. Seasons prior to draft year are not included, but draft year scoring and each year subsequent to the draft year (i.e., draft year plus one, draft year plus two, etc.) is translated into an NHL equivalent. More recent years are given more weight within the average in order to better represent a player's development.
3) Draft Selection
NHL scouting teams know a lot about a player and their team's needs, so they have a vested interest in developing their top-rated players. Team opinions represent about 20% of the total quantitative rank weighting.
4) Pre-Draft Opinions
Before the draft, multiple sources scout the players and report on their findings, and the opinions of these sources count for 10% of the ranking. Within the opinion score itself, the sources are weighted based on their past predictive abilities.
5) Age/Production Score
The Hockey Prophets Draft-Year Database is used to calculate a prospect's draft-year Age/Production Score, which is a standardized product of the player's scoring and specific age at the time of the draft. This score represents another 10% of the prospect ranking.
The remaining 20% of the score is based on other factors such as player size, a rated skating and hockey iq score, and risk-adjusted for items such as injury history and non-North American league status (i.e., is a player like Maxim Chudinov likely to come to play in North America?, etc.).
