How Are The Prospects Rated?

There are five main components used to rank the prospects, and a couple of components that have less weight.

1) Watching Prospects Play

First and foremost is the eyes-on test. Numbers can tell a lot about a player, but they can also obscure a lot of player attributes, as well. The Hockey Prophets try to watch as many of the players as possible and will collect as many game notes as possible. Prospects can and will be moved up and down the rankings based on actual viewings.

2) Scoring Ability

The scoring history of every prospect will factored into the score and represents about 40% of the total rank weighting. Seasons prior to draft year are not included, but draft year scoring and each year subsequent to the draft year (i.e., draft year plus one, draft year plus two, etc.) is translated into an NHL equivalent. More recent years are given more weight within the average.

 

3) Draft Selection

NHL scouting teams know a lot more about a player than we do, and their opions represent about 20% of the total quantitative rank weighting.

 

4) Pre-Draft Opinions

Before the draft, multiple sources scout the players and report on their findings, and the opinions of these sources count for 10% of the ranking. Within the opinion score itself, the sources are weighted for their predictive abilities.

 

5) Age/Production Score

The Hockey Prophets Draft-Year Database is used to calculate a prospect's draft-year age/production score, which is a standarized product of the player's scoring and specific age at the time of the draft. This score represents another 10% of the prospect ranking.

The remaining 20% of the score is based on other factors such as player size, a rated skating and hockey iq score, and risk-adjusted for items such as injury history and non-North American league status (i.e., is a player like Maxim Chudinov likely to come to play in North America?, etc.).

 

The compiled quantitative scores are ranked, and the ranks adjusted by qualititative information gathered from viewings. The result is the Hockey Prophets' point of view regarding the future fantasy potential of each prospect. 

                    Top 30 Forwards by Score Component

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